On Friday, January 15, 2021, an Ontario Conservative MPP Roman Baber published a letter to Ontario Conservative Premier Doug Ford, in which he claimed that “lockdowns are deadlier than Covid.” While concerns about the negative effects of lockdowns have been widely raised and discussed by medical experts and policy makers, there is currently no evidence to support the MPP’s claim.
Indeed, Statistics Canada has demonstrated that COVID-19 mortality was the driving force behind 2020’s excess mortality rate. Moreover, the cancellations of surgeries and other medical procedures, which Statistics Canada notes is a contributing factor to excess mortality, is a consequence not of lockdowns, but rather of limited medical system capacity due to the spread of COVID-19.
Among medical experts there is no consensus view as there is not enough data about the long-term impacts of lockdowns compared to their benefits to public health.
The World Health Organization states that “Large scale physical distancing measures and movement restrictions, often referred to as ‘lockdowns’, can slow COVID‑19 transmission by limiting contact between people” and warns that lockdowns can have a “profound negative impact” on communities.
Governments around the world have imposed varying degrees of lockdowns to combat the spread of COVID-19 based on the recommendations of medical experts, data and facts.
The MPP claims the “lockdown is not working.” After the spring 2020 lockdown was imposed, COVID infections declined. The current lockdown has not been as effective. Some medical epidemiologists believe, in the absence of hard data, that when comparing the spring lockdown with today’s “the highways are full, there are people everywhere. There is so much more interpersonal contact now than there was back in the spring, and I think that’s your answer — it’s not the same lockdown at all.”
The outcome of the original lockdown was to “flatten the curve” and limit the spread of COVID, which some medical experts who have advocated for a balanced lockdown approach acknowledge was achieved in the spring.
While the many of the facts in the MPP’s letter are debatable it does include misinformation about COVID health protocols and measures, some of which have appeared on foreign aligned conspiracy theory websites:
The MPP attributes a higher rate of substance abuse leading to overdose to lockdowns. However, experts suggest that the problem is considerably more complex, citing overall stress caused by the pandemic, rising homelessness, the mixing of stimulants with opioids, increased fentanyl content in certain drugs.
The MPP de-contextualizes lockdown regulations to broadly claim that government is “criminalizing normal human behavior.” Such claims erode public trust in public officials and health protocols that are designed to protect Canadians. Police in Ontario will not be randomly pulling over vehicles nor are they allowed to enter homes. The MPP’s statement is overstating government enforcement measures, which could unnecessarily contribute to raising public stress and antagonism towards authorities and elected officials.
The Toronto SickKids Hospital clearly stated on January 8, 2021 that schools impose “appropriate ventilation, mandatory masking, physical distancing, cohorting, screening, handwashing” to combat the spread of COVID-19. While most children will not exhibit serious symptoms, they can transmit the virus to others, including those at greater risk, which is why such protocols are required. Conspiracy theory websites have published this claim in the past.
The MPP has been ejected from Conservative caucus for publishing the letter. The Ontario’s Premier said that “By spreading misinformation he is undermining the tireless efforts of our frontline health-care workers at this critical time, and he is putting people at risk,” and added that “there is no room for political ideology in our fight against COVID-19 — rather, our response has been and will always be driven by evidence and data.”
Narratives questioning lockdowns have been broadly promoted by conspiracy theory websites including those identified by the US State Department as part of the Russian disinformation ecosystem.
